The Manchester Monitor is a dashboard of Greater Manchester specific data and indicators designed to provide a monthly analytical snapshot of the economic wellbeing of the city region.

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JUNE 2010
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In comparison to last month, this month’s Manchester Monitor finds the local economy in slightly ruder health. A critical monthly indicator – the number of unemployed residents – fell in May, and, in a positive sign, the number of jobseeker’s allowance claimants has shown the first annual fall since May 2008. Despite this, a high degree of pessimism and uncertainty persists from last month’s grim outlook.

Business prospects are tentatively promising. The number of vacancies reported to Jobcentre Plus has seen strong growth over the year, with job opportunities rising by 42.6% – faster than the national growth rate. Deal levels are starting to improve in Greater Manchester and nationally, suggesting growing confidence in Manchester firms as a beacon for investment. Although the number of high-risk firms has fallen, the general risk profile of Greater Manchester is above the national average.

The city centre continues to perform well, attracting people, and spend, as the city emerges from the recession. Retail turnover in the city centre has shown an increase of 6.9% this year alone, compared to a national fall of 2.3% . Footfall in the main areas of the city centre has also increased by 8.9% year-on-year, far above the national growth of just 0.8% . And hotel occupancy has also risen year-on-year to 71.4% in the city centre in April.

Manchester Airport’s performance has been affected by the ban on flights imposed as a result of the Icelandic ash cloud in April, compounding the impact of the recession. Manchester Airport saw passenger numbers fall by over a quarter on last year – passenger numbers in the previous month were already down by 6.9% on the year. In spite of this, Airport Councils International has recently awarded the airport with the title of Best Airport in the 10-25 million-passenger airport group.

Ash clouds have not been the only factor affecting the local economy recently. With the increase in stamp duty at the start of the year, the number of home sales has plummeted. In February 2010 home sales stood around 47% lower than in February 2009. This has meant slow growth for house prices, which grew by an average of just £23 in April. However, recent research found that orders for sales may improve following the withdrawal of the Home Improvement Packs.

In all, indicators suggest that Manchester is continuing to slowly move out of recession. However, once again, the risks remain on the downside. The major fiscal contraction outlined in the Emergency Budget will undoubtedly lead to job losses in the public sector. With a relatively small public sector as a proportion of its economy, Manchester is potentially better placed than most northern cities. However, things may get worse before they get better.

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worklessness
MONITOR
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In May 2010, JSA claimant figures experienced their first annual fall. JSA claimants now stand at 77,213, down 4.1% on April and down 1.4% on May 2009. Vacancies are also up, both on the month and on the year, showing increased confidence in businesses’ long-term prospects. In another positive move, long-term claimant numbers are now falling, in contrast to continually rising numbers since November 2008.

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business
MONITOR
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The credit risk associated with businesses in the city region fell this month according to Experian, with a smaller proportion of businesses being classified as high-risk in May 2010. This followed the regional and national trend.

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economic
MONITOR
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House prices increased in the month to April 2010, reaching £111,805 across Greater Manchester. Annually, house prices are up 3.1%, though this is lower than the national average.

Tourism indicators show some improvement. Hotel occupancy rates have increased on the year, but Manchester Airport’s performance has been impacted by the Icelandic ash cloud in April.

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DISCLAIMER
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All data contained in the Manchester Monitor, and all Monitor-related reports, has been compiled by New Economy from a range of sources and is published for general information purposes only. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the data and other material contained in this report, the Commission for the New Economy does not accept any liability (whether in contract, tort or otherwise) to any person for any loss or damage suffered as a result of any errors or omissions. The information, opinions and forecasts set out in the report should not be relied upon to replace professional advice on specific matters, and no responsibility for loss occasioned to any person acting, or refraining from acting, as a result of any material in this publication can be accepted by the Commission for the New Economy.