The Manchester Monitor is a dashboard of Greater Manchester specific data and indicators designed to provide a monthly analytical snapshot of the economic wellbeing of the city region.

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FEBRUARY 2010
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Figures released today show that economic growth was stronger in the final quarter of 2009 than early estimates suggested. This, coupled with the data that is beginning to come through on the relative health of Greater Manchester’s economy gives cause for cautious optimism.

Headline figures for January 2010 are clouded by seasonality. As temporary Christmas and New Year vacancies come to an end, unemployment inevitably rises. Bullish predictions by some commentators that unemployment would fall in January were never likely to be realised: the claimant count has recorded a January increase each year since records began in 1983. The winter doldrums, have also led to fewer flights and lower hotel occupancy.

However, compared with this time last year, the situation is vastly improved. The number of jobs available at Job Centre Plus offices is up 82.7%. The average share value of the region’s listed firms is up over 20 and the risk profile of the city’s businesses has stabilised. Hotel occupancy is up 5 percentage points on the year and the city region’s house prices have now shown slow but stable growth for four continuous months. Of course not all indicators are positive: merger and acquisition activity is still below half of the January 2007 level and both passenger and transport movements at Manchester airport are down year on year.

The GM Chamber of Commerce’s forward-looking Quarterly Economic Survey adds further fuel to the “tentative recovery” pile. It shows manufacturing order books up and that the rate of decline in service order books has slowed. Most businesses expect greater employment opportunities in the future. All in all, however, Manchester’s economy at this time is largely a function of the national economy, where the risks remain heavily on the downside. Recent weak investment, mortgage lending and retail figures reinforce this gloomy outlook.

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worklessness
MONITOR
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Seasonal trends return to the city region this month, as the long anticipated January reduction in claimants did not appear. The expectation was unlikely, though – January and February claimant figures tend to show increasing claimant numbers as individuals move onto the register. Last year’s growth in claimants, for example, was the highest monthly increase experienced in the city region since 1983. Fewer job vacancies advertised after the Christmas period compound the increase in new claimants, and afford less opportunity to move off the claimant count. Those furthest from the labour market will find the New Year harder going as the effects of the recession on the labour market continue to linger.

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business
MONITOR
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Business performance has been more stable, with a stronger outlook for 2010. Manchester Monitor Index average share values are up 22.6% on the year, ahead of the FTSE 100 – up 20.9. The recent Quarterly Economic Survey report from the Greater Manchester Chambers of Commerce show confidence in the year ahead is up as well, with more orders on industrial business books. Tourism businesses are also buoyant – with 63 of tourism businesses in the city region expressing a positive outlook. More importantly, the rising proportion of high-risk businesses has stabilised, and decreased slightly as the national economy officially came out of the recession.

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economic
MONITOR
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House prices seem to be stabilising in the city region, with increased sales and an average house price topping £110,808 in December 2009. The past four months have shown fairly stable house price increases, after the fall from a peak of £131,369 in April 2008. The construction market is also showing more investment in infrastructure and public sector projects as authorities bring forward investment projects. Yet the city region has seen a decrease in new construction jobs after a significant boost in the last quarter.

Flights and tourism have been affected by the winter lull, with seasonal reductions in both flight and passenger numbers at Manchester Airport. This has affected hotel occupancy rates in the city region – down to an average 70% in 2009 from 73% in 2008.

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For more information on the Manchester Monitor, contact Chris Pope:
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All data contained in the Manchester Monitor, and all Monitor-related reports, has been compiled by New Economy from a range of sources and is published for general information purposes only. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the data and other material contained in this report, the Commission for the New Economy does not accept any liability (whether in contract, tort or otherwise) to any person for any loss or damage suffered as a result of any errors or omissions. The information, opinions and forecasts set out in the report should not be relied upon to replace professional advice on specific matters, and no responsibility for loss occasioned to any person acting, or refraining from acting, as a result of any material in this publication can be accepted by the Commission for the New Economy.