- _
- Policy updates
- Greater Manchester Growth Plan
- Five Cities Study
- Quarterly Economic Outlook
- Local Economic Assessment
- Manchester Monitor
- Thinking New Economy
- New Economy Working Papers
- Greater Manchester Forecasting Model
- Building Economic Resilience Roadshow
- Future of Economic Development Workshop Programme
- Other Publications
- Consultation Responses
Manchester Monitor
The Manchester Monitor is a dashboard of Greater Manchester specific data and indicators designed to provide a monthly analytical snapshot of the economic wellbeing of the city region.
MAY 2012:
Greater Manchester continues to grow in strength despite recession
Monitor Focus Business People Place Housing
Despite the UK returning to recession, there are parts of the economy at a Greater Manchester (GM) level which continue to shown signs of strength – none more so than the visitor economy. The new release of the International Passenger Survey shows that overseas visitors to GM increased by 100,000 to 1.1million between 2010 and 2011. Growth in passenger numbers at Manchester Airport also shows no sign of abating, with figures for February standing at 1.18million – an annual increase of over 100,000. The fact that Manchester is hosting events as part of the Olympics should boost visitor numbers further – the football matches being played at Old Trafford and the warm up basketball games against the United States at the Manchester Arena are estimated to be worth up to £30million to the GM economy.
Confirmation of return to recession came at the end of April, when preliminary estimates released by the Office for National Statistics showed that UK gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2012. This follows a 0.3% decline in Q4 2011 and means the economy has now contracted for two consecutive quarters, the official definition of recession, though currently the trend remains one of stagnation rather than precipitous decline.
The challenges GM faces as a result of the ongoing economic uncertainty have not changed over the last year, in particular those relating to the labour market. On a monthly basis, the number of Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimants in GM declined slightly by 0.9% (800) to just over 87,000 people in March 2012, compared to 88,000 in February. Less positively, the number of JSA claimants in GM has increased on an annual basis by 11,600 (15.3%). There are also just over 37,000 long-term (6 months+) claimants based on the new data for March, equating to a substantial increase over the last twelve months of 55.3% (+13,200).
The housing market is also still suffering, and year-on-year house prices in GM have now declined for 16 consecutive months – the average property costs just under £106,000. Even with the ongoing price declines, the fact that the stamp duty holiday for first-time buyers has now ended whilst household incomes remain squeezed means that getting a foot on the property ladder may be harder than ever.
The office market in Manchester city centre saw take-up fall to 170,000 sq. ft in the first quarter of 2012, down from the figure of 258,000 sq. ft in Q4 2011. This reflected weaker demand for top grade property following a number of large grade A deals in 2010. The economic downturn saw the number of speculative office developments grind to a halt in Manchester, though Allied London has now announced plans for a £14million speculative scheme at Spinningfields. Called “l+”, it will provide 160,000 sq. ft of office space and work on the building will start in early 2013.
Looking ahead, the big question is which businesses, sectors and places can power ahead against the background of a national economy that risks stagnating for the foreseeable future. GM is in a stronger position than most in this respect and has a number of assets, such as the £1.2billion City Deal that will allow it to build new infrastructure. There are also still European Regional Development Funds available, as well as the £100million GM Investment Fund. The challenge is to ensure that GM invests in the right projects to achieve the most important part of any recovery: economic growth.
DOWNLOAD THE BACKGROUND DATA
- Mergers and acquisitions (48kb)
- GM Chamber data (66kb)
- Commercial property market (1189kb)
- Jobseeker’s allowance claimants (789kb)
- Jobseeker’s allowance flows (75kb)
- Jobcentre Plus reported vacancies (334kb)
- Worklessness (36kb)
- Airport activity (107kb)
- Hotel occupancy rates (27kb)
- Footfall (29kb)
- House prices (4458kb)
- Housing and council tax benefits (31kb)
DISCLAIMER
All data contained in the Manchester Monitor, and all Monitor-related reports, has been compiled by New Economy from a range of sources and is published for general information purposes only. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the data and other material contained in this report, the Commission for the New Economy does not accept any liability (whether in contract, tort or otherwise) to any person for any loss or damage suffered as a result of any errors or omissions. The information, opinions and forecasts set out in the report should not be relied upon to replace professional advice on specific matters, and no responsibility for loss occasioned to any person acting, or refraining from acting, as a result of any material in this publication can be accepted by the Commission for the New Economy.
Data GM
DataGM has been created by public sector organisations in Greater Manchester, to release and bring together in one place, as much of the data they hold as possible. Developed in partnership, DataGM is coordinated by Trafford Council in partnership with FutureEverything which seeks out and shares new art forms and technologies in creative ways.
Download:
