Manchester Monitor
The Manchester Monitor is a dashboard of Greater Manchester specific data and indicators designed to provide a monthly analytical snapshot of the economic wellbeing of the city region.
JANUARY 2012:
NEW GROWTH VITAL IN AN EVER CHALLENGING 2012
Monitor Focus Business People Place Housing
There is no denying that 2011 was an extremely challenging year for the GM economy. Unemployment continued to increase and economic growth was lower than expected, while households were faced with declining real incomes as a result of high inflation. All indications at the current time are that 2012 is going to be equally challenging, with further rises in unemployment predicted and the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasting national economic growth to be 0.9%, down from the previous estimate of 1.7%.
Despite the gloom, there was some good news at the turn of the year when the latest Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose between November and December. The PMI asks people in construction about their output and order books and the most recent Index suggests that the sector should make a positive contribution to the economy in the final quarter of the year as a result of rising output.
The economic climate continues to present challenges to GM, with the issue of reducing unemployment high on the agenda. Reflecting the usual seasonal boost to employment associated with the Christmas period, the number of Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimants in GM fell slightly on a monthly basis to just under 82,000 in November 2011. On an annual basis however, there are now nearly 10,000 more JSA claimants in GM than there were 12 months ago. Youth and long-term unemployment remain critical issues as we begin 2012. JSA claimants aged 16–24 in GM have increased by 4,300 on an annual basis, while the number of people claiming JSA for six months or more has increased by 8,500 year-on-year.
New data on the number of company start-ups and survivals highlights the impact of the downturn on new business activity. For the second consecutive year, the number of business deaths outnumbered business births in GM, a trend repeated across the UK. As reported over the last few months, the housing market in GM is flat, with little movement in house prices and the number of sales. Predictions for 2012 suggest this is likely to continue, with buyers deterred from buying properties as a result of the struggling economy and employment prospects.
The economic outlook is fairly pessimistic as we start the New Year. Nonetheless, there are reasons to be positive about the next 12 months in GM. In particular, the latest Quarterly Economic Survey by the GM Chamber reveals that companies in GM are proving resilient to the challenging economic backdrop. Manchester Airport is also defying the gloom and is still growing passenger numbers, while the latest hotel occupancy figures confirm the GM visitor economy as a key asset.
In the longer term, major projects such as the Metrolink expansion to Oldham and Rochdale, the second phase of development at Media CityUK and the planned Medipark as part of the Airport City Enterprise Zone should bring significant economic benefits to GM in the form of new employment opportunities and attracting new investment – all of which will help to deliver sustainable economic growth in GM.
DOWNLOAD THE BACKGROUND DATA
- Mergers and acquisitions (45kb)
- Unsatisfied judgements (33kb)
- GM Chamber Data (65kb)
- Business demography data (22kb)
- Jobseeker’s allowance claimants (789kb)
- Jobseeker’s allowance flows (130kb)
- Jobcentre Plus reported vacancies (334kb)
- Airport activity (101kb)
- Hotel occupancy rates (27kb)
- Footfall (28kb)
- House prices (4459kb)
- Housing and council tax benefits (31kb)
DISCLAIMER
All data contained in the Manchester Monitor, and all Monitor-related reports, has been compiled by New Economy from a range of sources and is published for general information purposes only. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the data and other material contained in this report, the Commission for the New Economy does not accept any liability (whether in contract, tort or otherwise) to any person for any loss or damage suffered as a result of any errors or omissions. The information, opinions and forecasts set out in the report should not be relied upon to replace professional advice on specific matters, and no responsibility for loss occasioned to any person acting, or refraining from acting, as a result of any material in this publication can be accepted by the Commission for the New Economy.
Data GM
DataGM has been created by public sector organisations in Greater Manchester, to release and bring together in one place, as much of the data they hold as possible. Developed in partnership, DataGM is coordinated by Trafford Council in partnership with FutureEverything which seeks out and shares new art forms and technologies in creative ways.
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