Two New Economy Working Papers to be launched tomorrow

How did the current recession spread across the North West?

Is the North West really nearing the end of the recession?

A thought provoking paper, to be published on 23rd February, dates the transition of all districts of the North West into recession, and lends some support to speculation that areas intensive in financial and related business services have led the way in the current recession.

The Paper also sets out findings from a forecasting exercise suggesting that the recession will continue in the first half of 2010 in the North West region. When looking at a longer forecast horizon, the authors predict a return to an expansion phase in the fourth quarter of 2010.

The Paper has been developed as part of New Economy Working Papers; a new series of papers analysing those factors which will stimulate the long-term economic growth of the Manchester city-region.

Marianne Sensier, author of the Paper said; “The North West region is a very diverse economy but all areas have suffered in the recent recession. We utilise survey data to forecast expansion for the employment business cycle at the end of 2010.”

Jerry Stokes, Chief Executive, Work Solutions commented:
“Work Solutions is delighted to sponsor this paper which makes an important contribution to our understanding of Greater Manchester’s experience of recession and the prognosis for moving out of it. The analysis it offers should help inform our employment and skills policy response as well as the day-to-day delivery of services by providers like Work Solutions as we seek to help those directly affected by recession.”

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1. Based on preferred model which combines house price inflation, service and manufacturing sector survey data.

2. Based on Land Registry’s house price index.

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ENDS

Notes to Editors:
For further information and interview opportunities please contact Liz Reuben : 0161 237 4179 or 07525 392 369

• Two New Economy Working Papers will be launched on Tuesday, 23 February at the City of Manchester Stadium “Tracking Unemployment in the North West Through Recession and Forecasting Recovery”. This paper is being sponsored by Work Solutions and Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce. A second paper on skills and employment will also be presented.

• New Economy Working Papers are designed both to produce robust pieces of analysis that stimulate the long-term sustainable economic growth of the Manchester city region and to act as a vehicle for economic development professionals to further their personal development. Papers are intended to invigorate intellectual and challenging debate on the key economic issues and ideas of the time.

• Overall responsibility for developing New Economy Working Papers lies with an independent Editorial Board.

• The views expressed in the New Economy Working Paper “Tracking Unemployment in the North West Through Recession and Forecasting Recovery” are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the views or the policy of members of the New Economy Editorial Board or the Commission for the New Economy.