Will Tomorrow Look Like Yesterday?

In November 2009, Greater Manchester hosted a seminar on the outputs of the updated 2009 Greater Manchester Forecasting Model 2009. The event was held at the CUBE Seminar Suite in Manchester city centre.

Download presentations and handouts from the GMFM Seminar 2009:

• GMFM Seminar 2009 – Handout Pack (2816kb)
• The Macroeconomic Environment – Alan Wilson (1486kb)
• North West: Is The Worst Behind Us? – Neil Gibson (1719kb)

Event Speakers

Ed Cox
Director, Institute for Public Policy Research, North

Ed Cox has recently been appointed as Director of ippr North and is developing an exciting programme of work building upon research into economic regeneration in some of Europe’s most dynamic city regions. Ed comes to ippr following two years working as Policy Adviser to Hazel Blears MP in her role as Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government where he played an important role in shaping the Sub-National Review, the Empowerment White Paper and other policy themes.

In previous roles Ed has been Director of Policy and Public Affairs at the Local Government Information Unit. His work there focused on issues such as community cohesion, engagement and leadership and he has published short pamphlets and papers on local democracy, neighbourhood renewal and community empowerment. During this time Ed also served as a commissioner on the government’s Commission on Integration and Cohesion.

Living in Manchester, Ed’s background lies in third sector community activism. Ed worked as Co-ordinator of Community Pride Initiative, a voluntary organisation supporting community engagement in neighbourhood renewal in Greater Manchester. He played a leading role in the development and implementation of Community Empowerment Networks in Manchester and Salford and was a member of the Manchester Local Strategic Partnership Board for whom he wrote the city’s first co-ordinated Community Engagement Strategy. Ed continues to be involved in third sector affairs in Manchester as chair of a multi-million pound community regeneration partnership in his local neighbourhood.

Ed has worked as a Neighbourhood Renewal Advisor on developing statutory-voluntary sector partnerships in the context of Local Area Agreements with a number of local authorities including Derby, Walsall and Wolverhampton. He established and facilitated a network of local authorities and other partners in the North West working on issues of community engagement and cohesion and served as Chair of the Board of Directors for Urban Forum.

Click here for more information about ippr North.

Baron Frankal
Director of Economic Strategy, Commission for the New Economy

Baron heads up the team that is the acknowledged authority on Manchester’s economy and brings together the city’s economic strategy for long-term sustainable economic growth, which is based largely on the results of the world’s largest study of its kind, the Manchester Independent Economic Review.

Baron joined New Economy in March 2008, from the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, where he was Senior Economist, responsible for work on European relations and European issues including migration, EU climate change policy, and the Treaty of Lisbon, on which he published, ‘How will the Treaty of Lisbon affect EMU’. Before joining the ECB, Baron was a solicitor at the City of London firm CMS Cameron McKenna, worked internationally and has experience at the United Nations in Geneva and representing the Law Society of England and Wales. Baron was born and bred in Manchester.

Click here to contact Baron by email or phone 0161 237 4468.

Alan Wilson
Director of Consulting Services, Oxford Economics

Alan Wilson is a Director in Oxford Economics’ consultancy division, having joined OEF in 1996, prior to which he was an economic adviser in the Treasury. He leads a range of consultancy projects for commercial companies and government departments. Alan also oversees Oxford Economics’ regional forecasts and takes an active role in Oxford’s macroeconomic forecasting. Recent major projects Alan has been involved with include studies of the impact of aviation on the UK and global economies; producing simulated Tourism Satellite Accounts showing the importance of tourism to 175 economies around the world on behalf of the World Travel & Tourism Council; modelling the interactions between economic activity, migration and housing in Manchester and Salford; and looking at London’s place in the UK economy.

Alan graduated from Cambridge University in economics in 1983, and later obtained an MSc with distinction from Birkbeck College, London. Before joining Oxford Economics he spent 12½ years in the Government Economic Service working for a number of departments on a wide range of economic issues. These included 3 years at the Office of Fair Trading advising on competition policy issues, a similar period at the Treasury working on tax policy issues; 2 years at the Treasury forecasting inflation; and finally a year co-ordinating the Treasury’s macroeconomic forecasts.

Click here for more information about Oxford Economics.

Neil Gibson
Director of Regional Services, Oxford Economics

Neil Gibson is the Director of Oxford Economics’ Regional Services Division, having joined Oxford Economics from Regional Forecasts, which he founded. Neil leads a team based in Oxford, London and Belfast. In his role he is responsible for Oxford’s regional services which include the bi-annual Regional Economic Outlook and he designed and maintains a range of bespoke local models for areas such as East of England, Greater Manchester, the Black Country, West of Scotland and Northern Ireland. Neil has particular experience in developing forecast models, delivering evidence based policy advice and providing thought leadership on issues facing regional and sub-regional economies. He is a regular commentator in the Northern Ireland press on economic matters and contributor to the annual Regional Economic Conference. Recently he has been leading Oxford Economics’ research into urban renaissance and the role and importance of cities in supporting future growth. Coupled with this has been the development of unique housing forecast models which link economic/demographic projections and the housing market in a comprehensive empirical way. Other areas of specialism include analysis relating to the impact of the shift towards the service sector economy and the issues facing businesses and economies during the current unprecedented economic slowdown.

Click here for more information about Oxford Economics.

John Holden
Head of Strategic Research, Commission for the New Economy

John is New Economy’s Head of Strategic Research. John has extensive research experience across a wide range of economic development themes, including skills, worklessness, and enterprise. John’s research has formed the basis of numerous major policy documents in Manchester, recent examples include the Skills and Employment Strategic Framework, the Greater Manchester Strategy and the Manchester Statutory City Region Pilot. John is currently working on projects to access how far education and skills provision in Manchester meets forecast demand for skills from employers; detailed analysis on the causes of neighbourhood level deprivation and drivers of improvement; and, working with policy makers and academics from five city regions across Europe, measuring the economic impact of local political and economic governance arrangements. He also manages the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model on behalf of AGMA.

Click here to contact John by email or phone 0161 237 4127.