CLAIMANT COUNT DATA RELEASE: 15/12/2009

For the second month in a row, Greater Manchester has experienced a decrease in JSA claimants, complementing a decrease both regionally and nationally. The sub-region experienced a decrease of 1.0% to 81,249 claimants in November, whilst a fall of 0.8% was experienced both regionally and nationally. This is not an indication of an emergence from the recession, despite the past two months decrease in claimants across the UK. Indeed, recent figures have shown that, in contrast to some European countries, the UK has yet to work its way out of the recession.

Vacancies also rose this month, as companies continued to gear up for the Christmas period. This convergence between supply and demand for jobs has increased the ratio of jobs to claimants to 27 jobs for every 100 claimants in Greater Manchester. Last month, this ratio stood at 22 jobs per 100 claimants. The North West also experienced 27 jobs per 100 claimants, whilst Great Britain experienced a lower rate of just 25 jobs.

In the three months to October 2009, New Economy estimates that total unemployment fell to around 119,400, with around one-third not claiming JSA. This was a quarterly decrease of nearly 2,100, or 1.7% , in comparison to a national quarterly increase of 20,800, or 0.8%.

John Holden, Head of Economic Research at New Economy noted:
“There is returning certainty in the UK markets. The Confederation of British Industries is reporting higher confidence, and Greater Manchester’s own Chamber of Commerce note increases in the positive outlook of GM businesses. Yet worklessness is a persistent issue, and the problems rooted in recessions require patience, understanding and support to overcome.”

Baron Frankal, Director of Economic Strategy at New Economy added:
“Understanding the nature of the beast is the first step towards defeating it. Last month, Greater Manchester launched its annual forecast update – the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model. The model assumes a continuing increase in unemployment in the short-term – similar to forecasts provided by the Treasury – as the decisions made during the recession continue to affect people’s lives. But this is just a likely scenario, based on Greater Manchester taking a back seat on worklessness. That isn’t what we’re doing, and that isn’t what we’re going to do. The Greater Manchester Strategy is all about changing our future – prosperity for all.”