Introduction to the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model

Consistent, sophisticated and robust information on the current and likely performance of Greater Manchester and the county’s hinterland, in terms of the economy, population and households, is a vital tool in the development of strategies and plans to accelerate economic performance.

In April 2006, the Association of Greater Manchester Authorities (AGMA) agreed to adopt a single economic, population and household forecasting model within Greater Manchester. This model consists of forecasts for all ten districts in Greater Manchester, but recognising economic realities, the model also contains data for areas within Cheshire (Warrington and the former districts of Congleton, Macclesfield and Vale Royal) and one in Derbyshire (High Peak).

Oxford Economic Forecasting Ltd have been commissioned to produce the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM), steered by a Model Management Group consisting of representatives from the ten Greater Manchester districts, Cheshire and other strategic partners such as GMPTE. The outputs of the model are available for all to utilise.

The GMFM is fully integrated into the existing suite of world, UK and regional models developed by OEF. The model has also been developed within the context of their existing regional model.

The present model includes a variety of developments and additions – including forecasts of carbon emissions and of employment land, and has been used as a key resource in the Manchester Independent Economic Review.

What is a forecasting model and what can it do?

A forecasting model is a complex statistical tool that forecasts change in the future, using analysis of past trends, both cyclical and structural. Primarily the value of a model is in highlighting likely trends rather than making detailed predictions about the scale and nature of growth.

Forecasting models are based on a series of assumptions about how the real world functions. These are based upon nationally validated datasets and observed relationships between different variables.

Who will use the model?

Various local authority departments will want to use the model to inform their action plans and policy development. New Economy and Greater Manchester’s other strategic commissions will be able to use the data to to provide a consistent evidence base to underpin the development of its multifaceted strategic framework.

Management

A Model Management Group (MMG) has been established to steer the development of the model. This group meets twice yearly.

The model is updated annually in Autumn. Each annual update includes a comprehensive report which analyses the causes of changing trends and outputs from the previous year and their impact across Greater Manchester.

In addition, to the annual update, MMG will also determine what scenarios are to be commissioned, consulting as appropriate with the wider audience of potential users.

Each local authority in Greater Manchester has a lead officer on the MMG. There is also an officer representing Cheshire. These officers have direct access to all the other relevant documentation and outputs, as well as access to their availability via this site. You can also suggest ideas to your representative for the development of the model, such as scenario testing of policies.

You can contact Mike Doocey or Chris Pope for details of your local representative.

Download the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model outputs and summary:

• GMFM 2009 Summary (808kb)
• GMFM 2009 – Main Outputs (13425kb)
• GMFM Annual Report – 2009 (2751kb)
• GMFM 2009 – Technical Note (421kb)

For more information about the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model, email Mike Doocey or Chris Pope. Alternatively, phone 0161 237 4024.