Estimates of how Greater Manchester’s jobs market will develop over the next ten years have received an upward revision by academic professionals at Oxford Economics, following a ‘slightly better than expected’ performance in 2014.
Based on the latest available data, it is now anticipated there will be a net gain of 110,000 new jobs across Greater Manchester by 2024 – an increase of almost 10% when compared to last year’s forecast. The jobseekers outlook is also somewhat more positive this year too, with around 17,000 fewer claimants expected in 2024.
The outputs are part of the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model (GMFM), produced and updated annually by Oxford Economics for New Economy on behalf of the Greater Manchester Combined Authority. The purpose ofGMFM is to provide a consistent evidence base for use in strategy and policy development.
GMFM again anticipates an average 3% growth in Greater Manchester’s GVA output, which will total approximately £17 billion by 2024 and is comparable to growth forecasts for both the North West and the UK.
The major drivers of this growth by sector in Greater Manchester over the next decade are expected to be the business, financial and professional series sector (£7.3 billion GVA increase), wholesale and retail (£2.4 billionGVA increase), and cultural and creative (£2.3 billion GVA increase).
A 1.7% per annum growth in manufacturing is also expected. However, employment levels in this sector are likely to reduce by 10,000 jobs as the industry continues to move towards high value production. The top three occupation types by growth in the next decade are expected to be: professional (17,000 jobs), associate professional and technical (14,000 jobs) and management, directors and senior officials (12,000 jobs).
John Holden, director of research at New Economy, said: “The Greater Manchester Forecasting Model is the UK’s most sophisticated local economic forecasting tool and has been designed to illustrate the direction in which our economy is heading. As with all forecasts, the results should be treated with a degree of caution, but they nevertheless provide a robust basis on which both businesses and the public sector can develop plans for the future.
“The indicators are broadly more positive with this year’s update, reflecting improved economic performance over the past 12 months and may yet need to be revised upwards as the figures do not fully take into account the recent devolution deal, which has the potential to boost growth further. However, while the forecasts give every reason to be optimistic about Greater Manchester’s economic future, airing on the side of caution we would also advise those using the forecasts to keep check of the many factors which could potentially disrupt this direction, not least the possibility of another EU-wide recession.”
Kerry Houston, lead economist at Oxford Economics, said: “The Greater Manchester economy is expected to remain as a key driver of the North West. The forecasts suggest an additional 128,000 more people and 110,000 net new jobs within the city region by 2024. Employment growth over the next decade will continue to be dependent upon gains in the professional services and admin & support sectors. The public services sectors, by contrast, are forecast to endure further contractions, as austerity measures continue to be implemented. This sectorial story has implications for the pattern of growth across the city region.”
More information on the Greater Manchester Forecasting Model
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